“The Bull Market is Alive and Well” – Marc Sutin

Honoring all who Served on Veterans Day.

US equity markets rallied to record highs last week. This,  fueled by optimism over US/China trade, better-than-expected Q3 earnings, and a lack of any geopolitical headlines that could have triggered heightened volatility.

Yesterday (Veteran’s Day), equity markets closed mixed. The Nasdaq slipped 0.13%, as did the S&P 500 (-0.20%). The Dow ticked incrementally higher (+0.04%). As expected, volume slipped from Friday trade. The Nasdaq volume dropped 14.07%. New York Stock Exchange volume contracted by 10.89% from Friday’s levels. After-hours trading was uneventful.

Last week’s trade higher was lead by the Dow Industrials, which gained 1.2%. The Nasdaq composite added another weekly gain to its streak – which now stands at six. The current market outlook remains “confirmed uptrend.”

This Week’s Economic Calendar Highlights:

Tuesday, November 12.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) releases its Optimism Index for October at 6:00 am. Econoday consensus is expecting the monthly reading to remain north of 100. September’s reading was 101.8. October is expected to be 102. Obviously, any reading that sheds light on the outlook of independent business operators is extremely significant.

The Consumer Price Index for October is released at 8:30 am. The Econoday topline consensus M/M is 0.3%, versus the previous month’s reading of 0.0%. Y/Y is expected to remain unchanged at 1.7%.
Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, is scheduled to give a talk at 11:00 AM.

Weekly Jobless Claims for the week ending 11/9 are released at 8:30 AM. Econoday consensus for New Claims – Level is 215 K. The four-week moving average – Level stands at 215.25 K.
The Producer Price Index – Final Demand (PPI-FD) data for October is due out at 8:30 AM. Econoday consensus is calling for a reversal from September’s -0.3% reading. October is expected to reflect an uptick to .3%. On a Y/Y basis, the PPI-FD is expected to come in at 0.9%.
The EIA Petroleum Status Report is due out at 11:00 AM. WTI crude has benefited from a relatively stable inventory and demand matrix in recent months, despite significant geo-political and middle eastern-centric political turbulence. Last week’s report saw an inventory build for crude (+7.9 M bbl), while gasoline and distillate inventories tightened around the edges.

October Retail Sales figures are released at 8:30 AM. Not unlike what has taken shape with PPI-FD in recent months, top-line retail sales are expected to reflect a reversal of sorts, gaining ground in October (0.2%).
October’s Industrial Production data is due out at 9:15 AM. This Federal Reserve monthly release is a critically important gauge used to measure manufacturing and capacity utilization health. In September, the M/M production reading was -0.4%, matching August’s reading. The same was the case for manufacturing on a M/M basis (-0.5%). Capacity Utilization in September was 77.5%. October’s reading is expected to tick down to 77.2%.


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